The
Russia
Tourism Report examines the long-term prospects for the tourism sector but,
in the short term,considers the negative consequences of an economic slowdown
in key source markets. We believe thestrong pick-up in visitor growth in 2011
slowed only slightly in 2012, with continuing favourable growthfrom some key
source markets in the eurozone, as well as Poland and China. An acceleration in
arrivalsgrowth is anticipated from 2013.
The report analyses official data on the number of foreign visitors to Russia, which showed sharpnegative growth in 2009 (after years of low growth) but relative buoyancy in 2011. BMI also considersfigures on the departure of Russian citizens abroad, which, aside from 2009's negative growth, havewitnessed continual healthy growth rates in recent years.
Factors constraining potential tourism to Russia also feature heavily, including the threat of terrorism andconcerns about Russian flight safety standards. Business opportunities, though, clearly exist in the midmarketaccommodation sector, infrastructure development and low-cost airlines.
Solid growth in foreign arrivals continued in the first half of 2012, with latest provisional national datashowing an increase of just under 15% year-on-year (y-o-y). This is similar to the growth rate recorded inH111 and is surprisingly strong given weak demand conditions in the eurozone - a major source regionfor inbound visitors. Indeed, growth in arrivals from key markets such as Finland, Germany, France andItaly, was relatively strong in H112. Outside the eurozone (excluding the former Soviet Union countries),arrivals from Poland and China also registered sizeable growth rates in H112, as in 2011, equal to 60%and 11% y-o-y respectively. Of the Baltic states, only arrivals from Estonia achieved positive growth,amounting to 9% y-o-y, while those from Lithuania and Latvia fell by 20% and 11% respectively.
The report analyses official data on the number of foreign visitors to Russia, which showed sharpnegative growth in 2009 (after years of low growth) but relative buoyancy in 2011. BMI also considersfigures on the departure of Russian citizens abroad, which, aside from 2009's negative growth, havewitnessed continual healthy growth rates in recent years.
Factors constraining potential tourism to Russia also feature heavily, including the threat of terrorism andconcerns about Russian flight safety standards. Business opportunities, though, clearly exist in the midmarketaccommodation sector, infrastructure development and low-cost airlines.
Solid growth in foreign arrivals continued in the first half of 2012, with latest provisional national datashowing an increase of just under 15% year-on-year (y-o-y). This is similar to the growth rate recorded inH111 and is surprisingly strong given weak demand conditions in the eurozone - a major source regionfor inbound visitors. Indeed, growth in arrivals from key markets such as Finland, Germany, France andItaly, was relatively strong in H112. Outside the eurozone (excluding the former Soviet Union countries),arrivals from Poland and China also registered sizeable growth rates in H112, as in 2011, equal to 60%and 11% y-o-y respectively. Of the Baltic states, only arrivals from Estonia achieved positive growth,amounting to 9% y-o-y, while those from Lithuania and Latvia fell by 20% and 11% respectively.
Over the last quarter
BMI have revised the following forecasts and views:
BMI forecasts a slight slowdown in foreign visitor arrivals to Russia in 2012, with annualgrowth of 9.5% (edged up from our previous forecast of around 6%). A moderate pick-up ingrowth is anticipated in 2013 and 2014.
BMI's real GDP growth forecasts for the eurozone, a major source of inbound tourism to Russia,have been lowered marginally for 2012 to -0.7% from -0.6%, rising to only 0.6% growth (downfrom 0.9% previously) in 2013 but picking up to 1.4% in the following year.
BMI expects the Russian rouble to head towards our end-2012 RUB33.00/US$ target, fromaround RUB31.50/US$ at the time of writing. Moreover, since we expect appreciatory pressuresto stay subdued beyond 2012, our end-2013 forecast is also RUB33.00/US$. The short-termcurrency effect is therefore favourable for inbound tourism.
Reflecting favourable growth in visitor numbers, two main players in the domestic market,Aeroflot and Transaero, recorded impressive growth y-o-y in passenger traffic in the first threequarters of 2012.
BMI forecasts a slight slowdown in foreign visitor arrivals to Russia in 2012, with annualgrowth of 9.5% (edged up from our previous forecast of around 6%). A moderate pick-up ingrowth is anticipated in 2013 and 2014.
BMI's real GDP growth forecasts for the eurozone, a major source of inbound tourism to Russia,have been lowered marginally for 2012 to -0.7% from -0.6%, rising to only 0.6% growth (downfrom 0.9% previously) in 2013 but picking up to 1.4% in the following year.
BMI expects the Russian rouble to head towards our end-2012 RUB33.00/US$ target, fromaround RUB31.50/US$ at the time of writing. Moreover, since we expect appreciatory pressuresto stay subdued beyond 2012, our end-2013 forecast is also RUB33.00/US$. The short-termcurrency effect is therefore favourable for inbound tourism.
Reflecting favourable growth in visitor numbers, two main players in the domestic market,Aeroflot and Transaero, recorded impressive growth y-o-y in passenger traffic in the first threequarters of 2012.
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