Brazil Renewables Report Q2 2013
We
have slightly revised down our 2013 forecast for non-hydropower renewable
energy generation due to a worsening economic outlook. In particular, we
expect that the underperformance of fixed investments in the country and shrinking
margins in the banking sector could undermine investment in new capacity and
dampen growth in electricity consumption. We remain relatively bullish over the
longterm as renewable energy appears to be the government’s answer to rapidly
growing electricity demands from the country. Wind energy appears to be the
forerunner in the sector, due to positive economic and environmental factors.
We have revised down our 2013 forecast for non-hydropower renewable energy generation growth from 8.4% to 8.2%. This revision was prompted by a weaker 2013 economic outlook, leading us to slightly moderate our electricity consumption and capacity forecasts.
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Turkey
Renewables Report Q2 2013
Our
Q2 2013 forecasts for the Turkish
renewables market remain virtually unchanged from the previous quarter, as
we still view the market positively, despite the high levels of risks that
potentially could materialise during 2013. Overall, we believe that the rewards
on offer, particularly when considering the rest of the region, outweigh these
risks, and therefore we expect investor interest to remain high. Wind will continue
to outperform the rest of the renewables segments, posting high levels of
growth across the forecast period. That said, the project pipeline suggests
that there will be developments across the board. Despite the predominance of
thermal generated electricity, Turkey’s renewables sector presents significant growth
potential across most technologies, including wind, geothermal and solar power.
In fact, Turkey has made impressive progress with its renewable energy
expansion over the last decade, with non-hydro renewables capacity increasing
from 132MW in 2000 to nearly 3000MW in 2012 (BMI estimate). The allure of
Turkey as an investment hub is growing stronger, and although numerous risks
remain, most pertinently the fact that the Turkish economic rebalancing remains
vulnerable to hefty headwinds in 2013, we expect robust growth across our
ten-year forecast period.
