Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Ukrainian Electricity Market Analysis 2013

Ukraine’s dependence on Russia for gas is a problem, as it exposes the country to import volatility and ongoing price disputes, which have been exacerbated by the government’s power price subsidies. Domestic sources cannot fuel all gas-fired generation, so Ukraine wishes to boost its nuclear and renewables capacity. Investment is unlikely to reach the required level, while sales prices for power are low, although the IMF is forcing through tariff increases.

Key trends and developments in the Ukrainian electricity market:
Ukraine’s power generation in 2012 was estimated by BMI to be 179.39 terawatt hours (TWh). During the period 2013-2022, Ukraine’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 1.80%, reaching 214.43.TWh. Driving this growth will be an annual average gain of 2.26% in gas-fired
generation. Non-hydro renewables will also play a bigger role in the country’s energy mix, growing by an annual average of 27.96% over the same period. Ukraine has a much more aggressive view of power consumption trends than BMI. An increase in electricity demand to 307TWh by 2020 and to 420TWh by
2030 is envisaged by the state, and government policy is to continue supplying half of this from nuclear power. This will require 29.5 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity in 2030, up from the current rate of 14.84GW. The scale of the increase is at odds with likely economic growth and population needs, and the cost of the capacity expansion programme is likely to be beyond Ukraine’s capabilities.

 
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Table of Contents
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Ukraine Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Ukraine Power Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 11
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 12
Table: Ukraine Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 14
Table: Ukraine Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 15
Electricity Consumption 19


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