World
demand to rise 3.4% annually through 2015
The
world kaolin market is projected to grow 3.4 percent per year through 2015 to
28.4 million metric tons, which will represent a significant acceleration from
the relative stagnation of the 2005 to 2010 period. Growth in kaolin demand
will be fueled by a generally stronger economic climate worldwide, with
especially rapid growth in the developing economies of the Asia/Pacific and
Central and South America regions. Kaolin
market demand in developed economies, particularly in North America and
Western Europe, is forecast to recover from declines seen between 2005 and 2010
and post moderate growth going forward. Demand for kaolin market valued in
dollars is expected to grow quickly, rising 4.4 percent per year to a worldwide
total of nearly $4.6 billion in 2015.
China
to see fastest growth
The
largest gains will be seen in China, which will by itself account for 40
percent of the growth between 2010 and 2015 in worldwide kaolin market demand.
Currently the world’s second largest consumer of kaolin, China will experience
large-scale manufacturing growth and easily overtake the US to become the
world’s largest kaolin market by 2015. India will also see a sizable increase
in kaolin demand, fueled by an economy showing significant development across
the board. India’s growth in kaolin market demand will represent an
acceleration of the already rapid pace of the 2005 to 2010 period, with the
fastest growth occurring in the country’s paper industry. The developed nations
of the US and Japan and most of the countries in Western Europe will see very
weak growth through 2015, although all will post recoveries in comparison to the
2005-2010 performance.
Paper
market to lead gains
From
2010 to 2015, demand for kaolin market in all its major industrial uses is
expected to rise faster than in the 2005 to 2010 period. The most drastic
improvement will be seen in the paper industry, which is poised to reverse the
negative trend it posted over the previous decade. Kaolin’s market share in
paper production, traditionally the largest industrial use, was hurt in recent
years by increasing competition from alternative materials, most notably calcium
carbonate. That competition is expected to moderate going forward, as the
market structure settles into a new norm. By 2010, most of the economically
viable substitution of other materials for kaolin had already taken place.
Combined with expanding paper and paperboard production in developing regions,
the stabilization of kaolin’s market share in the paper industry will allow the
global market for kaolin in paper to rise 2.0 percent per year through 2015.
Brazil
to surpass US as top kaolin exporter by 2015
The
global trade market for kaolin is extremely active due to production being
heavily concentrated in the US, China, and Brazil, which together accounted for
over half of world kaolin shipments in 2010. The US was the world leader in
both production and net exports in 2010. However, production of kaolin in the
US has declined in recent years, while production in Brazil has grown
especially quickly, as producers have moved to take advantage of the numerous
high-quality kaolin deposits in the Amazon Basin region. By 2015, Brazil is
projected to overtake the US to become the world’s largest exporter of kaolin
market. Imports are greatest in the Western Europe region, which hosts a number
of advanced manufacturing economies, with only the United Kingdom being a major
kaolin net exporter in the region.
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Published: Feb 2012
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