Canada’s
mining sector will remain one of the steadiest growth stories in the Americas
region thanks to diversified mineral deposits and a steady pipeline of
investment. Canada mineral production is diversified across base and precious
metals as well as industrial minerals. The country is a top ten global producer
of zinc, lead, iron ore, nickel, copper, gold, silver, uranium and potash. With
many companies both headquartered and producing in Canada, the mining sector is
crucial to the Canadian economy. Thus, we expect Canada’s political leadership
to maintain favourable tax and regulatory policies for the sector. However,
weak US growth, eurozone troubles, and slowing, less commodity-intensive growth
in China, will lead to slow, albeit stable growth in the Canadian mining
sector.
We have
revised our forecast downward for Canada’s
mining industry value from US$US33.8bn to US$29bn in 2017 on the back of
our outlook for weak Chinese and developed world growth. Though global demand
growth is likely to remain slow and global production capacity is at an all
time high, particularly for base metals, decreasing ore quality and rising
costs among major mineral exporters should encourage new exploration across Canada’s
untapped resources. While Canada is less cost competitive on a
per-unit-of-output basis compared to some developing-world exporters, its
technological, infrastructure, and governance advantages makes it an attractive
investment destination. Therefore, we forecast average annual industry growth
of 3.1% between 2012 and 2017 as Canada’s stable business environment attracts consistent
investment.
Canada’s
well developed capital markets allow firms to access funding beyond traditional
credit channels, though equity financing has slowed. Canadian firms also led
M&A activity in the first half of 2012, with junior gold miners
particularly engaged in deal making. Tax and royalty policies also remain
favourable for mining firms. Canada maintains a dual-tiered regulatory system,
comprising both provincial and federal stakeholders, and project approval can
sometimes take upwards of several years. However, Canada’s federal authorities
have expressed interest in reforming and streamlining the system to prevent one
project from needing multiple government approvals.
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