Australia Renewables Energy Market Report Q1 2013

The short to medium-term outlook for renewable energy in Australia is extremely positive, driven by growth in both small and large capacity installations. That said, we note that a review of the country’s renewable energy target currently being carried out by regulators poses significant risks to our forecasts, as we currently believe that no changes will be made to the target. We have also downgraded long-term growth in solar energy on the back of new capacity information, but continue to expect significant growth for the sector.

We are forecasting non-hydro renewable generation to grow by 15.7% in 2013 to reach 9.3 terawatt hours (TWh). This growth performance is significantly higher than the five-year moving average of 13.1%, which we attribute to new data on rooftop solar capacity and to a number of large projects coming online. One of these projects is the 420 megawatt (MW) Macarthur Wind farm in Victoria, which will be the largest wind farm in Australia if completed. We expect wind energy to account for 59% of 2013 nonhydropower renewable generation.

Our long-term forecasts for the renewables sector are relatively bullish, and we expect the nonhydropower renewable generation to grow by an average of 10.4% per annum between 2013 and 2017.

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We expect wind to be the dominant form of renewable energy, accounting for 62.2% of non-hydropower energy in 2017. Solar power will grow considerably as well, driven by a mixture of large- and small-scale capacity, and will reach 18% of non-hydropower energy in 2017, while Biomass will account for 20%.

Here are the key trends and regulatory changes in the industry:

• Carbon Tax Scheme – Australia’s parliament amended the country’s carbon tax scheme passed in 2012. The scheme will no longer have a price floor when it transitions to a free trade system in 2015, and will involve greater integration with the European Union emissions trading scheme.
• Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs) were reduced in Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and Western Australia (WA). Several utilities have stepped up to fill the gap, and Horizon Power will be paying AUD0.1-0.5 to customers who feed renewable energy back in WA.
• Plans to build the 150MW Moree solar PV farm were cancelled in February this year after the consortium developing the project failed to secure a power purchase agreement. The project was initially proposed under the government’s Solar Flagships programme, but since its closure, the government has awarded the funds to AGL to develop 159MW of solar power.

Table of Contents

BMI View.... 5
SWOT Analysis ... 6
Australia Renewables SWOT . 6
Industry Forecast Scenario .... 7
Table: Australia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 ... 7
Table: Australia Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021. 8
Table: Australia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 10
Table: Australia Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 ... 11
Renewables Projects Database . 16
Table: Major Projects - Renewables .. 16
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure.. 19
Targets (Renewables and Emissions).. 19
Subsidies 20
Table: Renewable Feed-In Tariffs In Australia, 2012.. 20
Infrastructure... 22
Ratings 23
Australia Renewables Risk/Reward Ratings.. 23
Rewards . 23
Risks.. 23
Competitive Landscape .. 24
Hydro Tasmania ... 24
AGL Energy 24
Origin Energy .. 24
Solar Systems... 25
Glossary of Terms . 26
Table: Glossary of Terms 26
Methodology and Sources... 27
Industry Forecasts 27
Renewables Industry - Data Methodology .... 28
Generation Data ... 28
Electricity Generation Capacity Data. 28
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology.... 29
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 31
Sources .. 32Table: Australia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, -
Table: Australia Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, -
Table: Australia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, -
Table: Australia Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, -
Table: Major Projects - Renewables
Table: Renewable Feed-In Tariffs In Australia,
Table: Glossary of Terms
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators

Report Details:

 

Published: Oct 2012

No of Pages: 33

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