Iran Defence and Security Report Q1 2013

Iran Defence & Security Report examines the country’s strategic position in the Middle East and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the Islamic Republic and the challenges it may face in the future.

The report examines the trends occurring in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report’s general conclusion is that Iran faces extreme economic and security challenges partly as a result of its nuclear programme and also of its enduring
support for the Assad regime in Syria – support which appears to be ackfiring.

Iran’s decision to continue propping up Assad has left it looking increasingly isolated, and has handed the initiative to other regional powers, notably Egypt and Turkey, which both seek Assad’s removal. Meanwhile, international sanctions have gutted Iran’s oil exports, which have now sunk to less than half of their usual level. The United States government hopes that this extreme economic pressure, combined with the build-up of military assets in the region, will force the Iranians to make concessions before Israel launches an anticipated military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. However, at the same time senior US officials have made clear their reluctance to take part in any Israeli military action.

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Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- The latest diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful solution to the Iranian nuclear question are discussed. With the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reporting that its negotiations with Tehran have not been successful, the latest round of P5+1 talks in Istanbul in September will provide the best indication so far of whether Iran is starting to crack under the pressure of
international sanctions.

- The prospects of military intervention in Iran are also examined. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu still appears to favour military action in the near term, several senior US officials have voiced their  opposition, including General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. There appears to be mounting American resistance to the idea of being drawn into a new conflict at Israel’s behest.

- New Iranian military procurement programmes are also reviewed. These include claims from Iran that it is developing a long-range cruise missile. While such a capability could alter the military balance in the Middle East, the Iranians most likely lack the technical know-how to make the system fully operational.

- A new area of geopolitical tension pertaining to Iran – the Caspian Sea – is also analysed. Iran’s threat to deploy submarines in the contest, energy-rich sea risks setting Tehran at odds with Moscow, one of the few world powers with which it maintains working relations.

Report Details:

Published: Oct 2012

No. of pages:86

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