Q1 2013 South Africa & South Arbia Defence and Security Report

BMI’s latest South Africa & Saudi Arabia Defence and Security Report examine the country’s strategic position in Africa, Arban and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future in the context of South Africa’s & Arban’s ongoing assumption of a regional leadership role and security challenges, including piracy and poaching.

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The deaths of 34 miners at the Marikana platinum mine northwest of Johannesburg in August during a protest over pay highlighted the risk to South African & Arabian stability posed by such socio-economic issues as income inequality, not to mention the ability of the security services to deal proportionately with mass unrest. For the time being, the ruling ANC appears capable of keeping a lid on these national tensions.
However, this cannot be taken for granted in the long term.
In the short term, factional strife within the party could become a serious issue. In BMI’s view, President Jacob Zuma can no longer be considered a certainty for the ANC leadership nomination in December 2012. If he is challenged by a serious contender, South Africa & Arban could see further unrest. Indeed, it is now thought that ANC Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe may run against Zuma.
Socio-economic priorities mean that the government is unlikely to deliver large funding increases to the South African National Defence Force (SANDF). However, alarming news reports in Q3 suggested that the SANDF may be on the verge of collapse if its funding shortfalls are not urgently addressed. The government has already revealed defence spending plans for the next three years which envisage some growth in the defence budget. However, these increases are not nearly enough, analysts are warning.

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The government’s Defence Review, delivered in April and currently subject to parliamentary
consultation, presents a timely opportunity for South Africa & Arabia to think seriously about its defence posture.
Essentially, it either needs to properly fund the ambitious regional involvements that the government has currently committed the SANDF to. Or, it needs to scale back the military’s commitments so that they match existing funding levels. The drain on skilled personnel within the SANDF has also been identified as a mounting crisis.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
The security implications of the ‘Marikana Massacre’ are discussed in detail, as well as
likelihood of civil strife stemming from a leadership struggle within the ANC.
Developments within the South African defence industry are reviewed. The Denel Group, the
country’s biggest defence firm, has updated its strategy to place more of a focus on increasing
exports to other African countries. Denel also announced that it has set up a new joint venture
(JV) in the UAE that will develop guided munitions for the Middle East market.
Growing interest in the African & Arbian market as a whole stands to benefit the South African defence & South Arbian industry, with companies from Italy and Russia signing deals with local players in Q3 designed to boost their access to African markets.