France Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013 RnR Market Research Report

French energy policy is subject to change following Francois Hollande’s election victory. Nuclear energy in particular is under the spotlight, with the existing commitment set to be diluted in favour of renewables. Hollande has restated a goal of reducing nuclear generation to 50% of the electricity mix, from 75% currently. This leaves the door open for gas to play a larger role. Overall, the future of energy growth is uncertain and the outlook for refiners and fuel distributors remains poor.

The main trends and developments in the French oil & gas sector are:

- President Hollande in September 2012 reiterated France’s moratorium on hydraulic fracturing (fraccing), which effectively bans exploration for shale oil/gas and dashed industry hopes that he might soften his stance. During the keynote address at the Environmental Summit in Paris, the French President said that he had rejected seven applications to open up shale gas acreage to exploration and that this would be his policy throughout his term in office. At the same time, he restated a goal of reducing nuclear generation to 50% of the electricity mix, down from 75 %currently.

- A French court in October 2012 refused all bids received for the Petit-Couronne oil refinery operated formerly by insolvent oil firm Petroplus. The court said it would consider new offers until November 5 2012, but there was no sign of a resolution at the time of writing. Several potential rescuers had earlier expressed interest in the Normandy refinery, including Hong- Kong-based Alafandi Petroleum Group and NetOil, a group led by Middle Eastern businessman Roger Tamraz. There have been suggestions that Libya’s sovereign wealth fund could invest in the plant.

- Gas demand is expected to rise more quickly than oil demand, with new sources of supply being lined up by GdF Suez, which has signed import agreements with Egypt in addition to those already signed with Russia, Norway, Algeria and the Netherlands. Gas consumption is forecast to reach 51.8bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2016, climbing further to 56.8bcm by 2021, subject to revisions in French energy policy. Gas production is negligible, meaning that imports could rise significantly to a high of around 56.3bcm by the end of our 10-year forecast period, in 2021.

- In May 2011, EdF and Total confirmed that they would proceed with the US$2.2bn Nord-Pasde- Calais Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project at Dunkirk, which is expected to add between 10bcm and 13bcm of import capacity when it comes onstream. There are also plans to expand capacity at the Montoir-de-Bretagne terminal to 16.5bcm by 2014.

- Thanks to improved energy efficiency and efforts to reduce oil dependency, oil demand is now expected to remain mostly flat over our 10-year forecast period to 2021. We forecast oil consumption reaching 1.88mn barrels per day (b/d) by 2016, edging higher to 1.96mn b/d in 2021. Crude oil imports are expected to exceed 1.90mn b/d in 2021.

- Crude oil imports will cost an estimated US$67.7bn in 2012, falling to US$61.9bn in 2016. With virtually no domestic gas supply, we expect French gas imports of 51.2bcm in 2016, costing US$23.8bn. Combined crude oil and gas imports are expected to cost France US$85.6bn by 2016. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.10/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013.The assumptions for 2016 and 2021 are US$93.25 and US$91.50/bbl respectively.

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Table Of contents

BMI Industry View  5
SWOT Analysis  7
France Oil & Gas SWOT  7
Industry Forecast Scenario  8
Oil And Gas Reserves  8
Table: France Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021  9
Oil Supply And Demand  11
Table: France Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016  11
Table: France Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021  12
Gas Supply And Demand  14
Table: France Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016. 14
Table: France Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 15
LNG 17
Refining And Oil Products Trade  18
Table: France Refining Production And Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 18
Table: France Refining Production And Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021 19
Revenues/Import Costs  20
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 21
France Upstream Rating - Overview 21
France Upstream Rating - Rewards. 21
France Upstream Rating - Risks 21
France Downstream Rating - Overview  21
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings  22
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 23
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 24
Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 26
France Energy Market Overview  28
Overview/State Role 28
Licensing and Regulation 28
Government Policy  30
International Energy Relations 31
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 32
Oil Refineries 32
Table: Refineries In France 32
Service Stations 34
Gas Pipelines  34
LNG Terminals 35
Table: LNG Terminals In France 35
Gas Storage 36
Competitive Landscape 37
Executive Summary 37
Table: Key Players - France Oil And Gas Sector 38
Table: Key Upstream Players 38
Table: Key Downstream Players 38
Company Profiles 39
Total 39
GdF Suez 43
Royal Dutch Shell 46
Vermillion Energy - Summary. 48
Toreador Resources - Summary 48
EDF - Summary. 49
Tethys Oil - Summary  49
Lundin Petroleum - Summary 50
Egdon Resources - Summary 50
Delek Group - Summary  50
Conoco/Realm - Summary  50
European Energy - Summary 51
Regional Energy Market Outlook  52
Global Energy Market Outlook  59
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison 61
Western Europe - Regional Appendix  65