Algeria
Infrastructure Report 2013
The
outlook for the Algerian construction sector points to a strong rebound in
2013, as the government’s ambitious investment plan in the infrastructure
network will continue over the coming quarters and tenders of which are
currently (December 2012) being completed. Reasonable growth rates and rising
oil prices, as well as a period of political stability, in relation to
neighboring countries, are helping to maintain Algeria’s inflows of foreign
investment. The construction sector is estimated to have seen a year-on-year
(y-o-y) contraction of 0.3% in 2012, with an industry value of US$17.9bn. Over
the 10-year forecast period, average y-o-y growth will be 6.3%, from 2013 to
2022, with industry value to stand at US$48.2bn by the end of this period.
The key trends and developments in Algeria’s Infrastructure sector are:
- The Algerian government announced in December 2010 its aim to produce as much electricity from renewable sources as it currently produces from its natural gas plants, and in October 2011 stated its intention to invest EUR15bn into alternative energy over 20 years to support electricity production. The plan will aim to develop solar, wind and geothermal power plants, with cooperation agreements having already been signed with a host of countries including France, the US, Brazil, Russia, China and Germany.
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Argentina
Infrastructure Report Q2 2013
Our
previously-held view that Argentina’s construction sector will decelerate
rapidly is playing out, with a contraction of 1.9% estimated for 2012. We have
downgraded our outlook for 2013, to reflect a further deepening of the
contraction, to -2.6% year-on-years. We believe the recession will last until
2014, when a contraction of 0.2% is anticipated.
Leading indicators for building permits show consistent contractions, as the industry runs out of steam under the pressure of heavy inflation, import restrictions, a funding squeeze and a slowing macro picture. The slump is being mainly driven by the impact of policies on the residential construction sector and falling industrial production; however, infrastructure should remain the one area of growth, as a number of projects progress. This will not be enough to reverse the trend of falling industry value however.
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