France Q3 2013 Market Report for Information Technology, Food and Drink & Defence and Security

France Information Technology Report Q3 2013

As a consequence of the weaker economic outlook for France, we have downgraded our forecast for French IT spending in the Q3 2013 update. We now forecast spending to increase by 2.8% in 2013 to reach EUR35.6bn. Growth trends within the IT market will ensure it stays in positive growth territory in 2013, and from 2014 growth will pick up as the economic environment becomes more supportive. Trends driving spending in the IT market include the growth of tablet sales, and we expect innovation in hybrids/convertibles and ultrabooks will boost sales in H213 and 2014. In addition, cloud computing is developing rapidly in France, both in terms of adoption by enterprises and the public sector, but France is also emerging as a potentially large base for cloud computing providers with local and global vendors investing in datacentre facilities.

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Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Computer Hardware Sales: EUR7.6bn in 2012 to EUR7.8bn in 2013, then EUR8.8bn in 2017 with CAGR of 3.0% 2013-2017 in local currency terms. While desktop and notebook sales have experienced a sharp decline, this is compensated for by the growth in tablet sales.
- Software Sales: EUR10.4bn in 2012 to EUR10.7bn in 2013, then EUR13.3bn in 2017 with CAGR of 5.0% 2013-2017 in local currency terms. Windows 8 upgrades, and later the removal of support for XP, will see higher sales in operating systems, while efficiency-improving enterprise software will remain in high demand.

- IT Services Sales: EUR16.6bn in 2012 to EUR17.1bn in 2013, then EUR21.6bn in 2017 with CAGR of 5.3% 2013-2017 in local currency terms. Cloud computing is expected to be the key growth driver for IT services spending, with the regional growth trend supplemented by the presence of national cloud computing providers.

France Food and Drink Report Q3 2013

Our outlook for France’s consumer sector continues to be subdued, as signs of a robust recovery have yet to emerge in the eurozone despite some initially promising economic readings in the first quarter of the year, with the domestic outlook not much better in France. While household consumption has served as France’s main growth locomotive in recent decades, we do not expect this to be the case in 2013. Unemployment has risen to almost 11% and is expected to remain sticky over 2013 in light of an increasingly stagnant economic outlook. In light of our revisions to the growth outlook, we have revised up our unemployment forecasts for this year, and now expect unemployment to average 11.2% versus a previous forecast of 10.6%. Additionally, we are seeing signs that household incomes are struggling. The contraction in disposable income bodes particularly poorly for household consumption growth, and the weakening consumer outlook is echoed in coincident indicators, with consumer spending contracting by 2.9% year-on-year in February, versus expectations of just 2.0%.

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Headline Industry Data

- 2013 per capita food consumption growth in local currency = +0.6%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +1.1%
- 2013 alcoholic drink sales growth in local currency = +2.3%; CAGR to 2017 = +1.0%
- 2013 soft drink sales growth in local currency = +2.5%; CAGR to 2017= +3.6%
- 2013 mass grocery retail sales growth in local currency = +2.0%; CAGR to 2017= +3.0%

France Defence and Security Report Q3 2013

France Defence & Security Report examines the country’s strategic posture, its defence community, order of battle, and current and future procurement programmes. The report examines the current structure of the French armed forces. It evaluates ongoing defence reform initiatives and examines the position of France in NATO, and its defence commitments around the world. In addition, it discusses the French defence industry and its performance both in home and international markets.

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