Greece Q3 Market: Infrastructure, Shipping & Defence and Security Industry Reports

RnRMarketResearch.com adds “Greece Defence and Security Report Q3 2013” “Greece Infrastructure Report Q3 2013” “Greece Shipping Report Q3 2013” on its database.

Greece Shipping Report Q3 2013

Still In The Dumps, But Is The Worst Over?
It is (still) grim in Greece. 2013 remains on track to be the fifth consecutive year of recession in the country. The combined impact of fiscal severity and internal devaluation is hammering domestic demand, the main driver of economic activity. Consumer spending remains down by 8-9% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, and unemployment is touching 27%. Industrial production is down by around 35% since the pre-crisis peak. As the government wearily negotiates debt rollovers with the troika (the European Commission, European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund) the political risks also remain on the downside and BMI cannot exclude an abrupt Greek departure from the eurozone (although our core forecast is for Greece to remain inside it). Having said all that we recognise some signs that the worst may be over. The trade account is beginning to rebalance, with the 12-month rolling deficit narrowing by nearly 60% since mid-2008. Admittedly this is being driven by weak domestic demand rather than by exporters becoming more competitive, but at least it reduces the drag on growth. There are also some signs of a pick-up in gross fixed capital formation, led by inventory re-stocking. We are therefore maintaining our existing forecasts for GDP. After dropping by an estimated 6.3% in 2012, we think GDP will contract again this year by 4.2%. The encouraging note is that we have pencilled in modest positive growth in 2014, when GDP should rise by 1.7%.

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Greece’s outward-looking shipping sector remains partially protected from the full force of the domestic crash. The country’s largest container port, Piraeus, is projected to record a double-digit box throughput increase of 20.9% in 2013, while total tonnage throughput is also expected to rise (by 10.3%). This reflects new investment, the port’s role as a gateway into Europe, and growth in Greek foreign trade in 2013 (forecast at 2.6% in real terms – the first positive number after four years of steady falls). Throughput at the country’s second largest port in terms of total tonnage, the port of Thessaloniki, is forecast to grow by 3.4% y-o-y while box traffic there will gain 6.3%.

Greece Infrastructure Report Q3 2013

Our outlook for the Greek construction industry remains bleak as we forecast yet another year
of contraction in the industry during 2013, despite a continued decline since 2007. The downturn is evident in both the housing and infrastructure segments, as private residential construction and government sponsored public projects ground to a halt. In line with our overall view about existing projects facing significant delays and funding issues, we see little scope for a quick rebound in the construction industry during our 10-year forecast period.

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Greece’s construction industry is estimated to have contracted by almost 15.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) during 2012 in real terms, according to new data released by General Secretariat of National Statistics, and there is little hope for resurgence in 2013 as reduced spending on planned projects and diminished demand from the private sector (owing to higher property taxes, tight credit and rising unemployment) discourage investors from returning to the market. However, three bright spot for the construction industry is the support that the infrastructure segment draws from the EU and the convergence and cohesion funds that Greece receives from the European Commission. Equally encouraging for the infrastructure sub-sector are the government’s plans to privatise some of its infrastructure assets, which are expected to generate EUR50bn by 2015 and could open up the potential for capital investment by the new private owners into existing infrastructure and finally the redevelopment of the road projects that have been until now in standstill.

Greece Defence and Security Report Q3 2013

One of BMI’s conclusions from this report concerns Greece’s defence budget. While the country has routinely maintained defence spending in excess of NATO’s 2% of Gross Domestic Product guideline figure, Athens’ ability to maintain such spending levels in the future now seem highly unlikely given Greece’s current economic woes. In addition, the report examines the transition of the Greek armed forces from their erstwhile NATO posture which was focused on the protection of the southern European flank towards a lighter, more deployable configuration.

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All three branches of Greece’s armed services are falling under the government’s austerity measures, with plans afoot to close army, air force and naval bases. Greece’s finances are having an adverse effect on the country’s ability to support military operations around the world, and the sustainment of its defence industry which historically has been highly reliant on the domestic market.