Russia and Romania Tourism Report Q2 2013

Russia Tourism Report Q2 2013

This quarter BMI has revised and restructured its tourism reports, incorporating a greater range of data and focusing on the hotel industry, the value of the tourism industry itself, and the impact of macroeconomic factors. BMI’s Russia tourism report looks at the massive potential offered by the tourism market across Russia. Despite economic limitations in some of Russia’s major markets in Europe, inbound tourism still experienced large growth in 2010 and 2011, and we expect this growth will continue from 2013 onwards. By 2017 we expect that total annual arrivals will reach close to 44mn, up from 27.3mn in 2012.

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Romania Tourism Report Q2 2013

This quarter BMI has revised and restructured its tourism reports, incorporating a greater range of data and focusing on the hotel industry, the value of the tourism industry itself, and the impact of macroeconomic factors. The ongoing economic uncertainty in Europe is having an effect on the domestic tourism industry in Romania. However, there is still a great deal of investment potential in Romania, for large tourist industries – particularly global hotel groups. Equally BMI believed that rising incomes across the wider CEE region are having a positive impact on the Romanian tourism sector, and will continue to do so over the medium term.

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Table of Content

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 10
Economic 11
Business Environment 12
Industry Forecast 13
Inbound Tourism 14
Table: Russia and Romania Inbound Tourism, 2010-2017 14
Table: Russia and Romania Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets by Arrivals 15
Outbound Tourism 16
Table: Russia and Romania Outbound Tourism, 2010-2017 17
Table: Russia and Romania Top 10 Destinations by Departures, 2010-2017 18
Travel 19
Table: Russia and Romania Receipts on Transport and Travel, 2010-2017 19
Table: Methods of Travel, 2010-2017 20
Hotels 22
Table: Russia and Romania Hotel Accommodation, 2010-2017 22
Table: Russia and Romania Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, 2010-2017 22
Macroeconomic Forecasts 24
Economic Activity 24
Table: Russia and Romania - Economic Activity 25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 26
Tourism Risk Reward Ratings 26
Table: Central and Eastern Europe, Risk and Reward Ratings 26
Russia and Romania Security Risk Reward Rating 27
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 28
Market Overview 30
Table: Russia and Romania Key Infrastructure Projects 31
Table: Top 10 Global Hotels Groups Present in Russia and Romania 32
Company Profile 34
Transaero 34
Global Industry Overview 36
Table: Global Tourism Indicators, International Tourist Arrivals, 2009-2017 36
Table: global tourism indicators, hotel and establishment units, 2009-2017 37
Table: Global Sporting Calendar, 2013-2022 39
Global Assumptions 42
Table: Global Assumptions 42
Table: Global & Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y 44
Table: Developed States - Real GDP Growth Forecasts, % 45
Table: Emerging Markets - Real GDP Growth Forecasts, % 46
Table:BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts (%) 48
Demographic Forecast 49
Demographic Outlook 49
Table: Russia and Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 50
Table: Russia and Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 52
Table: Russia and Romania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 53
Table: Russia and Romania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 53
Methodology 54
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 54
Tourism Industry 54
Tourism Ratings - Methodology 55

List of Tables

Table: Russia and Romania Inbound Tourism, 2010-2017
Table: Russia and Romania Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets by Arrivals
Table: Russia and Romania Outbound Tourism, 2010-2017
Table: Russia and Romania Top 10 Destinations by Departures, 2010-2017
Table: Russia and Romania Receipts on Transport and Travel, 2010-2017
Table: Methods of Travel, 2010-2017
Table: Russia and Romania Hotel Accommodation, 2010-2017
Table: Russia and Romania Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value, 2010-2017
Table: Russia and Romania - Economic Activity
Table: Central and Eastern Europe, Risk and Reward Ratings
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Russia and Romania Key Infrastructure Projects
Table: Top 10 Global Hotels Groups Present in Russia and Romania
Table: Global Tourism Indicators, International Tourist Arrivals, 2009-2017
Table: global tourism indicators, hotel and establishment units, 2009-2017
Table: Global Sporting Calendar, 2013-2022
Table: Global Assumptions

New Report on Q1 2013 Russia Tourism Market Report

The Russia Tourism Report examines the long-term prospects for the tourism sector but, in the short term,considers the negative consequences of an economic slowdown in key source markets. We believe thestrong pick-up in visitor growth in 2011 slowed only slightly in 2012, with continuing favourable growthfrom some key source markets in the eurozone, as well as Poland and China. An acceleration in arrivalsgrowth is anticipated from 2013.

The report analyses official data on the number of foreign visitors to Russia, which showed sharpnegative growth in 2009 (after years of low growth) but relative buoyancy in 2011. BMI also considersfigures on the departure of Russian citizens abroad, which, aside from 2009's negative growth, havewitnessed continual healthy growth rates in recent years.

Factors constraining potential tourism to Russia also feature heavily, including the threat of terrorism andconcerns about Russian flight safety standards. Business opportunities, though, clearly exist in the midmarketaccommodation sector, infrastructure development and low-cost airlines.

Solid growth in foreign arrivals continued in the first half of 2012, with latest provisional national datashowing an increase of just under 15% year-on-year (y-o-y). This is similar to the growth rate recorded inH111 and is surprisingly strong given weak demand conditions in the eurozone - a major source regionfor inbound visitors. Indeed, growth in arrivals from key markets such as Finland, Germany, France andItaly, was relatively strong in H112. Outside the eurozone (excluding the former Soviet Union countries),arrivals from Poland and China also registered sizeable growth rates in H112, as in 2011, equal to 60%and 11% y-o-y respectively. Of the Baltic states, only arrivals from Estonia achieved positive growth,amounting to 9% y-o-y, while those from Lithuania and Latvia fell by 20% and 11% respectively.

Over the last quarter BMI have revised the following forecasts and views:

BMI forecasts a slight slowdown in foreign visitor arrivals to Russia in 2012, with annualgrowth of 9.5% (edged up from our previous forecast of around 6%). A moderate pick-up ingrowth is anticipated in 2013 and 2014.

BMI's real GDP growth forecasts for the eurozone, a major source of inbound tourism to Russia,have been lowered marginally for 2012 to -0.7% from -0.6%, rising to only 0.6% growth (downfrom 0.9% previously) in 2013 but picking up to 1.4% in the following year.

BMI expects the Russian rouble to head towards our end-2012 RUB33.00/US$ target, fromaround RUB31.50/US$ at the time of writing. Moreover, since we expect appreciatory pressuresto stay subdued beyond 2012, our end-2013 forecast is also RUB33.00/US$. The short-termcurrency effect is therefore favourable for inbound tourism.

Reflecting favourable growth in visitor numbers, two main players in the domestic market,Aeroflot and Transaero, recorded impressive growth y-o-y in passenger traffic in the first threequarters of 2012.

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